Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 3.666654 4.012493 4.416855 4.936760 5.607980 6.479757 7.769343
2024-12-22 3.158688 3.562741 4.070523 4.788045 5.844565 7.502886 10.858260
2024-12-29 2.956045 3.410462 4.014477 4.938929 6.481987 9.494193 19.865874
2025-01-05 2.711160 3.158825 3.768911 4.738447 6.464589 10.309092 32.855216
2025-01-12 2.516918 2.950605 3.551072 4.529046 6.349031 10.831952 67.333332
2025-01-19 2.386732 2.816336 3.421341 4.433684 6.415932 11.968127 NaN
2025-01-26 2.336297 2.786629 3.439064 4.582919 7.043095 16.225038 NaN
2025-02-02 2.313830 2.792967 3.509754 4.837977 8.068524 29.134692 NaN
2025-02-09 2.248777 2.731232 3.465232 4.867115 8.537054 51.679936 NaN
2025-02-16 2.195607 2.682858 3.436648 4.921523 9.135423 883.980020 NaN
2025-02-23 2.105907 2.574239 3.299532 4.731127 8.815948 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.057575 2.525726 3.259259 4.739602 9.234667 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.003323 2.467876 3.203059 4.715631 9.578855 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.935983 2.386982 3.102456 4.581512 9.407001 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.914969 2.376232 3.121395 4.718662 10.583511 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.850031 2.293907 3.009429 4.536435 10.059559 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.787333 2.213187 2.897036 4.345241 9.449394 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.743111 2.160037 2.830967 4.257879 9.359081 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.733211 2.160124 2.858495 4.394513 10.583046 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.734947 2.178465 2.919846 4.627007 12.936148 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.710931 2.154332 2.901613 4.653484 13.931010 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.690820 2.135670 2.892323 4.702879 15.361554 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.647052 2.077132 2.805294 4.529767 14.140908 NaN NaN